CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2014-03-29T18:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2014-03-29T18:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/5039/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-04-01T21:30Z (-1.0h, +1.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
Estimate issued Tue Apr 1 22:48:33 UTC 2014 View full results at http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060 -- IMPACT UNLIKELY, GLANCING BLOW -- Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact MESSENGER and Mars. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - MESSENGER between about 2014-03-31T01:05Z and 2014-03-31T03:45Z (average arrival 2014-03-31T02:28Z) for 8% of simulations. - Mars between about 2014-04-04T07:07Z and 2014-04-04T07:07Z (average arrival 2014-04-04T07:07Z) for 2% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2014-04-01T20:31Z and 2014-04-01T22:30Z (average arrival 2014-04-01T21:30Z) for 5% of simulations. The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor to below minor). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060/20140329_183900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060/20140329_183900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060/20140329_183900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060_arrival_Mars.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060/20140329_183900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060_arrival_Mess.gif ## Notes: SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member and the links following show histograms of predicted arrival times at various locations. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-03-29_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060/Detailed_results_20140329_183900_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE060.txt ###Lead Time: -1.32 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-04-01T22:49Z
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